Evaluating economic instruments on denuclearization: a study of U.S. economic sanctions on North Korea’s nuclear program

Abstract

This study critically evaluates the effectiveness of economic sanctions in curbing North Korea’s nuclear proliferation ambitions, arguing that their failure stems from both internal and external factors. Having withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in 2003, North Korea presents a challenge due to its ideological rigidity, totalitarian governance model , and highly centralized economy. The thesis, which uses a realist theoretical framework, applies, cartel theory to examine how North Korea’s internal political structure, which is anchored in Juche and Songun ideology, enables it to resist external economic coercion. The regime has developed illicit economic networks, elite patronage systems, and internal propaganda tools that not only cushion the effects of sanctions, but also turn them into tools of domestic legitimization. Externally, the multilateral sanctions regime is compromised by the inconsistent enforcement of key powers. China’s and Russia’s strategic noncompliance and selective implementation of United Nations (UN) sanctions undermine the cohesion of the United States (US) led “sanctions cartel.” South Korea’s fluctuating engagement policies further complicate regional consensus on how to respond to North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. The study concludes that sanctions alone cannot dismantle North Korea’s nuclear program. Rather than deterring proliferation, they have reinforced regime resilience and nuclear resolve. A hybrid approach combining sanctions with sustained diplomatic engagement and tailored incentives is likely to be more successful. By integrating an analysis of North Korea’s internal dynamics with an assessment of the implications of external geopolitical fragmentation, this research contributes to the literature on the efficacy of economic sanctions as a tool to curb nuclear non-proliferation It further emphasizes the need for context-specific strategies that account for the political, economic, and ideological structure of the target state.