Research Articles (Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/1936

A collection containing some of the full text peer-reviewed/ refereed articles published by researchers from the Department of Geography

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Building volume per capita : a crowding metric of housing disparities in Gauteng, South Africa
(Sage, 2025) Naidoo, Laven; Ballard, Richard; Naidoo, Yashena; Maree, Gillian; Khanyile, Samkelisiwe; Palacios-Lopez, Daniela; Esch, Thomas
In South Africa’s largest city region, located in the province of Gauteng, a key condition of inequality is that high-income households live in large houses while low-income households live in much smaller accommodation. Innovations in earth observation have enabled the modelling of building volumes in cities and this allows for new ways of assessing housing inequalities in Gauteng. This study calculates building volume per capita (BVPC) for the province as an indication of the volume of residential space in which individuals live. It offers five analyses using this data. First, mapping this metric illustrates that townships, informal settlements and inner city high-rise areas have cramped conditions of less than 10 cubic metres per person, while suburbs have a much higher building volume per capita. Second, the article shows that this metric complements traditional calculations of crowding, such as the number of people per room. Third, it calculates the relationship between BVPC and income and shows that the lower-earning three-fifths of households in the province occupy just 13% of the province’s residential building volume, while the higher-earning two-fifths occupy 87% of the province’s building volume. Fourth, it calculates that 51% of residential hexagons in the province fall below the threshold of adequately sized housing as defined by South African housing standards. Finally, it shows that areas that fall below the threshold have a higher proportion of informal housing.
Weather related disasters in South Africa from 1980 to 2023
(Elsevier, 2025-09) Bopape, Mary-Jane Morongwa; Keebine, G.; Ndarana, Thando; Mbokodo, I.L.; Hlahane, K.; Motshegwa, T.; Amha, Y.; Ogega, O.M.; Mfopa, C.; Mahlobo, D.D.; Engelbrecht, F.A.; Chikoore, H.; thando.ndarana@up.ac.za
This study presents an analysis of weather-related disasters in South Africa (SA), during the period 1980 to 2023. The data used includes the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) disaster list, the fifth generation European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting reanalysis (ERA5), the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) satellite imagery as well as the South African Weather Service synoptic charts for weather systems identification. Floods and storms emerge as the most prevalent disasters, particularly affecting KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province (in the east of SA), with the eThekwini metropolitan municipality (metro) recording the most events. Although KZN receives substantial rainfall, no evidence suggests eThekwini experiences more rainfall than other districts in the province, suggesting human influences associated with urbanisation in disaster patterns. Cape Town metro reports the highest number of disasters in the western part of the country, associated with more rainfall, yet human factors may also contribute. Cut-off low systems and upper troughs which classify as mid-troposphere mid-latitude systems triggered the most floods and storms, while ex-tropical cyclones (ETCs) caused only four disasters during the study period. Upper Perturbations also resulted in floods and storm disasters indicating a need for forecasters to also pay attention to smaller scale processes. These findings enhance our understanding of weather-related disaster risks in South Africa, providing valuable insights for climate resilience and proactive disaster management. Given the reliance on the EM-DAT database, the potential for unrecorded disaster events introduces a limitation that may influence the conclusions drawn from this analysis.
Groundwater-vegetation interactions in rangeland ecosystems : a review
(MDPI, 2025-04) Rapiya, Monde; Ramoelo, Abel
Water scarcity is a growing global issue, especially in arid and semi-arid rangelands, primarily due to climate change and population growth. Groundwater is a crucial resource for vegetation in these ecosystems, yet its role in supporting plant life is often not fully understood. This review explores the interactions between groundwater and vegetation dynamics in various rangeland types. Groundwater serves as a critical water source that helps sustain plants, but changes in its availability, depth, and quality can significantly impact plant health, biodiversity, and ecosystem stability. Research indicates that groundwater depth affects vegetation types and their distribution, with specific plants thriving at certain groundwater levels. For instance, in grasslands, shallow groundwater can support diverse herbaceous species, while deeper conditions may favor drought-tolerant shrubs and trees. Similarly, in forest ecosystems, extensive root systems access both groundwater and soil moisture, playing a vital role in water regulation. Savanna environments showcase complex interactions, where trees and grasses compete for water, with groundwater potentially benefiting trees during dry seasons. Climate change poses additional challenges by altering rainfall patterns and temperatures, affecting groundwater recharge and availability. As a result, it is crucial to develop effective management strategies that integrate groundwater conservation with vegetation health. Innovative monitoring techniques, including remote sensing, can provide valuable information about groundwater levels and their impact on vegetation, enhancing water resource management. This review emphasizes the importance of understanding groundwater–vegetation interactions to guide sustainable land and water management practices. By enhancing our knowledge of these connections and utilizing advanced technologies, we can promote ecosystem resilience, secure water resources, and support biodiversity in rangeland systems. Collaborative efforts among local communities, scientists, and policymakers are essential to address the pressing issues of water scarcity and to ensure the sustainability of vital ecosystems for future generations.
Response of the global ITCZ to ENSO and how the ITCZ determined from maximum precipitation compares with the surface tropical wind convergence
(Elsevier, 2025-07) Ramotubei, Teke Solomon; Landman, Willem Adolf; Mateyisi, Mohau J.; Nangombe, Shingirai S.; Beraki, Asmerom Fissehatsion
Shifts in the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) may lead to amplification of climate extremes such as droughts and flooding. Its spatio-temporal variations respond to well-established oscillation processes like the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This research establishes the global and regional response of the ITCZ position to ENSO. It also explores the alignment between the ITCZ as determined from two methods: the surface tropical wind convergence, and maximum precipitation. The ERA5 reanalysis data, 1990–2020, are used in this study. Each longitude is scanned for latitude of maximum precipitation, during each El Niño/La Niña/Neutral year, within the 20°N/S latitude range to identify the ITCZ position. An overlay of surface tropical wind convergence and the ITCZ position is employed for comparison of the two methods. The study concludes that the position established by the maximum precipitation aligns with the surface tropical wind convergence over the global oceanic areas. On seasonal average, the La Niña ITCZ position is consistently southward of its El Niño position over Africa and Central Pacific Ocean. Furthermore, the extreme cases of El Niño/La Niña leads to further north/south shifting of the ITCZ position from its normal El Niño/La Niña positions. The continental and Atlantic Ocean ITCZ is more persistent and shows a minimal fluctuation, in comparison to Oceanic ITCZ, during the El Niño/La Niña. Cross-wavelet analysis was explored as an African case study and it shows common high-power features between the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) and ITCZ signals over a four-year periodicity, mirroring the ENSO periodicity albeit with slowly varying time lag across the years. The cross-correlation of the two signals is strongest in Austral summer (DJF), corresponding to the peak of ENSO. This study contributes to the understanding of the overall description of the global and regional (with Australia and South America as new additions) ITCZ along with its response to the ENSO phases using the latest ERA reanalysis data. The global/regional spatio-temporal ITCZ shifts open an opportunity for improved interpretation of seasonal forecasts of hydroclimatic events, especially under climate change conditions that reflect a possibility of an increase in the frequency of ENSO events in the future.
Verification of operational Niño3.4 SST forecasts produced in South Africa since the 2015 El Niño event
(Elsevier, 2025-07) Landman, Willem Adolf; Barnston, Anthony G.; willem.landman@up.ac.za
The production of operational seasonal forecasts in South Africa began in the early 1990s, as South African modellers published numerous papers describing the research and development supporting these forecast systems. While this effort focused largely on seasonal rainfall and temperature predictability over southern Africa, work has also gone into predictions of global sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), including predictions for the central Pacific Ocean, and particularly the ENSO-related Niño3.4 region. Here we present verification statistics of archived real-time Niño3.4 SST forecasts from multi-model forecasting systems developed respectively at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research and at the University of Pretoria, both based in South Africa. These forecasting systems used forecasts produced by fully-coupled ocean-atmosphere models administered in the USA, and also by statistical models developed locally. Archived Niño3.4 SST forecast data are available continuously from 2015. The verification presented here covers a 9-year period beginning with forecasts for the 2015/16 El Niño event and ending with the 2023/24 El Niño event. In general, Niño3.4 forecast skill is limited during the boreal spring months and optimized during the boreal winter period when forecast variance is also largest. During boreal winter, probabilistic forecasts are able to discriminate between the El Niño, neutral and La Niña ENSO phases. Predictability of El Niño events is found to be highest of the three phases, with the lowest predictability for ENSO-neutral. Moreover, probability forecasts for El Niño and La Niña events are found to be mostly under-confident for high probability forecasts, and probabilities for neutral events are overestimated. A potential improvement in the probabilistic forecasts may be achieved by designing the climatological frequencies of the three forecast ENSO categories to match the observational definition based on ± 0.5 °C cutoffs.
Intrinsic dimensionality as a metric for temporal plant diversity evaluation : case study from the SHIFT campaign
(Wiley, 2025-04) Cawse-Nicholson, Kerry; Chadwick, K. Dana; Brodrick, Philip G.; Kiper, Michael; Thompson, David R.; Schimel, David; Miller, Charles E.; Townsend, Philip A.; Alves, Luciana F.; Shiklomanov, Alexey N.; Cho, Moses Azong; Ramoelo, Abel; Tsele, Philemon; Majozi, Nobuhle; Pierrat, Zoe Amie; Ferrier, Simon
Current biodiversity metrics derived from remote sensing data are typically applied to small local areas, require significant training data, and are not easily extensible globally. Here we propose the mathematical concept of intrinsic dimensionality (ID) as a method to quantify terrestrial vegetation variability without a need for in situ training data. We apply this technique to airborne imaging spectroscopy data from the Surface Biology and Geology High Frequency Time series (SHIFT) airborne campaign, with weekly overflights from February to May 2022 over a region in California stretching from Figueroa Mountain in the Los Padres National Forest to Point Conception and adjacent coastal areas. ID is considered in both spatial and temporal context—spatial ID represents spectral variability across a geographical region at a single time step, and temporal ID represents spectral variability over time for a single geographical location. Results show an encouraging and significant correlation between spatially calculated ID and in situ vegetation species richness data despite different spatial scales between the two (p = 0.01). Spatial ID remained largely unchanged at each time step over the course of three months during the spring green-up period when vegetation characteristics and spectral responses were changing rapidly (number of species remains unchanged even though spectra reflect phenological change over time). The temporal ID remained constant for pseudo-invariant surfaces such as parking lots, roofs, and rock, but showed increased ID with time for trees, shrubs, and grasses. This robustness of spatial ID to seasonal change is desirable in any measure of species richness because it is insulated from changes in vegetation condition that are unrelated to plant species richness. Even though the spatial ID is consistent across acquisition dates, when considering the full time series (temporal ID), we find that subweekly sampling may be necessary to spectrally capture the full phenological cycle of certain vegetation types.
Charting a course for freshwater biomonitoring : the grand challenges identified by the global scientific community
(Elsevier, 2025-07) Yates, Adam G.; Brua, Robert B.; Culp, Joseph M.; Aguiar, Francisca C.; Ajayan, Anila P.; Aspin, Thomas; Bundschuh, Mirco; Calderón, Mirian R.; Csabai, Zoltán; Dallas, Helen; Datry, Thibault; Silva, Karina Dias; Dzavi, Jean; England, Judy; Erős, Tibor; Gebler, Daniel; Goedkoop, Willem; González-Ferreras, Alexia Maria; Hamilton, David P.; Hughes, Robert M.; Juen, Leandro; Kefford, Ben J.; Koroiva, Ricardo; Krynak, Edward M.; Lavoie, Isabelle; Lento, Jennifer; Ligeiro, Raphael; Martins, Renato T.; Masese, Frank O.; De Assis Montag, Luciano Fogaça; Musetta-Lambert, Jordan; Painter, Kristin J.; Poikane, Sandra; Rico, Andreu; Ruaro, Renata; Sabater, Sergi; Michelan, Thaisa Sala; Schoelynck, Jonas; Smucker, Nathan J.; Stanković, Igor; Stubbington, Rachel; Van Deventer, Heidi; Van Niekerk, Lara; Van den Brink, Paul J.; Várbíró, Gábor; Wanderi, Elizabeth W.
The past 50 years have seen biomonitoring emerge as an essential means of generating the knowledge needed to inform protection and restoration of freshwater ecosystems. Despite the successes of biomonitoring, most freshwater ecosystems remain unmonitored. Moreover, degradation of freshwaters continues at a rapid rate with new threats and novel stressors emerging that are difficult to assess using existing techniques. New technologies and techniques have been developed to improve biomonitoring, but application has been slow and integration with existing approaches is often problematic. Clearly, freshwater biomonitoring faces many important challenges that must be addressed to meet management needs of the coming decades. We identify Grand Challenges facing freshwater biomonitoring with the aim of encouraging research and practice to address these challenges. We asked 256 biomonitoring scientists from around the globe to identify what they considered the most important challenges. From their submissions we established five Grand Challenges and 18 associated subchallenges. For each Grand Challenge, we outline the current state of biomonitoring practice and suggest promising pathways and approaches to address them. By identifying and describing these challenges, we strive to position freshwater biomonitoring to take advantage of emerging opportunities and enhance its capacity to meet current and future management needs.
Household PM2.5 in a South African urban and rural setting : a comparative analysis using low-cost sensors
(Elsevier, 2025-05) Benyon, Matthew; Kwatala, Ngwako; Laban, Tracey; Kapwata, Thandi; Batini, Chiara; Cai, Samuel; Micklesfield, Lisa K.; Panchal, Rikesh; Kunene, Siyathemba; Zondo, Sizwe B.; Language, Brigitte; Wernecke, Bianca; Hazelhurst, Scott; Gomez-Olive, F. Xavier; Vande Hey, Joshua; Wright, Caradee Yael
Please read abstract in the article.
Sustainable food systems through livestock–pasture integration
(MDPI, 2025-05) Rapiya, Monde; Mndela, Mthunzi; Ramoelo, Abel
The world’s population is projected to rise significantly, which poses challenges for global food security due to increased demand for food, especially from livestock products. As incomes grow in lower-income countries, there is a shift towards more diverse diets that include meat and dairy, stressing our agricultural systems. Livestock plays a crucial role in food production, contributing about 16% of dietary energy, and effective pasture management is vital for enhancing livestock productivity. This review explores how integrating pasture and livestock management can create sustainable food systems and improve nutrition and livelihoods. It assesses the economic viability of pasture-based livestock systems and examines how climate change affects both pasture productivity and livestock performance. The review also identifies innovative practices, such as improved grazing management and technological advancements, that can improve pasture health and livestock output. The findings underscore the importance of well-managed pastures, which can restore degraded lands, improve animal welfare, and support food security. It also highlights that adaptation strategies are necessary to address the challenges posed by climate change, ensuring that livestock systems remain sustainable. By focusing on innovative practices and better management, we can meet the growing demand for animal products while preserving ecosystems and promoting economic stability. Overall, this review emphasizes the need for a holistic understanding of how livestock and pasture management can work together to enhance food security in a changing world.
Towards building interventions in climate and health
(Springer, 2025) Ghosh, Arnab K.; Keenan, Olivia J.; Wright, Caradee Yael
Climate-amplified extreme weather events are on the rise. In the United States, 2023 represented the highest number of billion-dollar disasters according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It is clear that the widespread impacts of anthropogenic climate change to the health of millions of Americans and those across the globe can no longer be ignored. Evidence that can be used to build, test, and adapt to climate-relevant interventions is urgently required.
Identifying globally relevant learnings from Africa’s challenges and solutions to climate change and air pollutionrelated health impacts : a data science scoping review protocol
(BMJ Publishing Group, 2024-05-20) Wright, Caradee Yael; Jaca, Anelisa; Kapwata, Thandi; Naidoo, Natasha; Awokola, Babatunde; Bainomugisha, Engineer; Berhane, Kiros; Blesic, Suzana; Kehbila, Anderson Gwanyebit; Naidoo, Rajen N.; Nemukula, Bono; Nyarko, Benjamin Kofi; Okekunle, Akinkunmi Paul; Oni, Tolu; Quansah, Reginald; Thaim, Sokhna; Zakari, Ibhrahim Sidi; Beyene, Negussie
INTRODUCTION : Leveraging data science could significantly advance the understanding of the health impacts of climate change and air pollution to meet health systems’ needs and improve public health in Africa. This scoping review will aim to identify and synthesise evidence on the use of data science as an intervention to address climate change and air pollution-related health challenges in Africa. METHODS AND ANALYSIS : The search strategy will be developed, and the search will be conducted in the Web of Science, Scopus, CAB Abstracts, MEDLINE and EMBASE electronic databases. We will also search the reference lists of eligible articles for additional records. We will screen titles, technical reports, abstracts and full texts and select studies reporting the use of data science in relation to the health effects and interventions associated with climate change and air pollution in Africa. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION : There are no formal ethics requirements as we are not collecting primary data. Results, once published, will be disseminated via conferences and shared with policy-makers and public health, air pollution and climate change key stakeholders in Africa.
The heterogeneous effects of COVID-19 lockdowns on crime across the world
(BioMed Central, 2024-08-22) Trajtenberg, Nico; Fossati, S.; Diaz, Carlos; Nivette, A.E.; Aguilar, Raul; Ahven, Andri; Andrade, L.; Amram, Shai; Ariel, Barak; Arosemena Burbano, M.J.; Astolfi, Roberta; Baier, Dirk; Bark, Hyung-Min; Beijers, Joris E.H.; Bergman, Marcelo; Borges, D.; Breetzke, Gregory Dennis; Cano, I.; Concha Eastman, I.A.; Curtis‑Ham, Sophie; Davenport, Ryan; Droppelman, C.; Fleitas, Diego; Gerell, Manne; Jang, Kwang-Ho Jang; Kaariainen, Juha; Lappi‑Seppala, Tapio; Lim, Woon-Sik; Loureiro Revilla, R.; Mazerolle, Lorraine; Mendoza, C.; Mesko, Gorazd; Pereda, Noemi; Peres, Maria F.T.; Poblete-Cazenave , Ruben; Rojido, E.; Rose, Simon; Sanchez de Ribera, O.; Svensson, Robert; Van der Lippe, Tanja; Veldkamp, Joran; Vilalta Perdomo, C.J.; Zahnow, R.; Eisner, Manuel P.; greg.breetzke@up.ac.za
There is a vast literature evaluating the empirical association between stay-at-home policies and crime during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these academic efforts have primarily focused on the effects within specific cities or regions rather than adopting a cross-national comparative approach. Moreover, this body of literature not only generally lacks causal estimates but also has overlooked possible heterogeneities across different levels of stringency in mobility restrictions. This paper exploits the spatial and temporal variation of government responses to the pandemic in 45 cities across five continents to identify the causal impact of strict lockdown policies on the number of offenses reported to local police. We find that cities that implemented strict lockdowns experienced larger declines in some crime types (robbery, burglary, vehicle theft) but not others (assault, theft, homicide). This decline in crime rates attributed to more stringent policy responses represents only a small proportion of the effects documented in the literature.
Roles of host and environment in shift of primary anthrax host species in Kruger National Park
(Public Library of Science, 2024-12-06) Ochai, Sunday Ochonu; Snyman, Lourens F.; Dolfi, Amelie C.; Ramoelo, Abel; Reilly, Brian K.; Botha, Judith M.; Dekker, Edgar H.; Van Schalkwyk, Ockert Louis; Kamath, Pauline L.; Archer, Emma Rosa Mary; Turner, Wendy C.; Van Heerden, Henriette
Environmental and climatic factors, as well as host demographics and behaviour, significantly influence the exposure of herbivorous mammalian hosts to pathogens such as Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax. Until the early 1990s in Kruger National Park (KNP), kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros) was the host species most affected by anthrax, with outbreaks occurring predominantly in the dry season, particularly during drought cycles. However, the most affected host species has shifted to impala (Aepyceros melampus), with more frequent anthrax outbreaks during the wet season. This study investigates the roles of environmental variation and other host species in this shift. Temporal trends in environmental variables such as precipitation, soil moisture, temperature, and normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) were analyzed in relation to anthrax occurrence (presence/ absence and counts). Additionally, correlations between host species' densities and anthrax mortalities over time were examined. Anthrax cases in 1990 were concentrated in the central and northern regions of KNP (excluding Pafuri), primarily affected kudus; while subsequent mortalities affected mostly impala and were restricted to the far north, in Pafuri. Significant correlations were found between kudu anthrax mortality and a decrease in NDVI, average temperature, SPI-6 and SPI-12 (Standardised Precipitation Index in various time intervals. Conversely, anthrax occurrence in impalas was associated with a decline in SPI-3, and temperature rise, with increased mortality during the rainy season. Elephant density correlated negatively with kudu mortality, but a positive correlation with both impala mortality and impala density. The study concludes that environmental variables and species' densities may alter the diversity and frequency of hosts exposed to B. anthracis. Climate extremes and alterations therein may exacerbate anthrax severity by modifying species susceptibility and their probability of exposure over time.
Impacts of heat exposure in utero on long-term health and social outcomes : a systematic review
(BMC, 2024-05-04) Brink, Nicholas; Lakhoo, Darshnika P.; Solarin, Ijeoma; Maimela, Gloria; Von Dadelszen, Peter; Norris, Shane; Chersich, Matthew F.; Chikandiwa, Admire; Nakstad, Britt; Wright, Caradee Yael; Harden, Lois; Roos, Nathalie; Luchters, Stanley; Part, Cherie; Areal, Ashtyn; Haghighi, Marjan Mosalam; Manyuchi, Albert; Boeckmann, Melanie; Pham, Minh Duc; Hetem, Robyn; Durusu, Dilara
BACKGROUND : Climate change, particularly global warming, is amongst the greatest threats to human health. While short-term effects of heat exposure in pregnancy, such as preterm birth, are well documented, long-term effects have received less attention. This review aims to systematically assess evidence on the long-term impacts on the foetus of heat exposure in utero. METHODS : A search was conducted in August 2019 and updated in April 2023 in MEDLINE(PubMed). We included studies on the relationship of environmental heat exposure during pregnancy and any long-term outcomes. Risk of bias was assessed using tools developed by the Joanna-Briggs Institute, and the evidence was appraised using the GRADE approach. Synthesis without Meta-Analysis (SWiM) guidelines were used. RESULTS : Eighteen thousand six hundred twenty one records were screened, with 29 studies included across six outcome groups. Studies were mostly conducted in high-income countries (n = 16/25), in cooler climates. All studies were observational, with 17 cohort, 5 case-control and 8 cross-sectional studies. The timeline of the data is from 1913 to 2019, and individuals ranged in age from neonates to adults, and the elderly. Increasing heat exposure during pregnancy was associated with decreased earnings and lower educational attainment (n = 4/6), as well as worsened cardiovascular (n = 3/6), respiratory (n = 3/3), psychiatric (n = 7/12) and anthropometric (n = 2/2) outcomes, possibly culminating in increased overall mortality (n = 2/3). The effect on female infants was greater than on males in 8 of 9 studies differentiating by sex. The quality of evidence was low in respiratory and longevity outcome groups to very low in all others. CONCLUSIONS : Increasing heat exposure was associated with a multitude of detrimental outcomes across diverse body systems. The biological pathways involved are yet to be elucidated, but could include epigenetic and developmental perturbations, through interactions with the placenta and inflammation. This highlights the need for further research into the long-term effects of heat exposure, biological pathways, and possible adaptation strategies in studies, particularly in neglected regions. Heat exposure in-utero has the potential to compound existing health and social inequalities. Poor study design of the included studies constrains the conclusions of this review, with heterogenous exposure measures and outcomes rendering comparisons across contexts/studies difficult. TRIAL REGISTRATION : PROSPERO CRD 42019140136.
Attributing impacts of LULCC on the boundary layer climate of South Africa’s eastern escarpment
(Springer, 2024-09) Mohomi, Tumelo; Mbatha, Nkanyiso B.; Boshoff, Danie S.; Mbokodo, Innocent L.; Ndarana, Thando; Bopape, Mary-Jane Morongwa; Chikoore, Hector
Land surface characteristics may influence the planetary boundary layer atmosphere and climate through exchanges of moisture, energy, and momentum near the surface. We attributed the impact of multitemporal landsat-derived land use/land cover change (LULCC) on temperature and precipitation variability in eastern South Africa using reanalysis data and satellite-derived estimates from 1979 to 2020. Landsat images were classified into different land cover classes using a machine learning random forest pixel-based supervised algorithm within the cloud-based Google Earth Engine. Time series analysis was employed to analyze cycles and trends in LULCC and hydrometeorological variables, whilst the variable importance model determined the most sensitive variable. The impacts of LULCC on the boundary layer climate were attributed via multiple linear regression. An uninterrupted rapid expansion of urban areas was observed, resulting in the transformation of grasslands, water bodies, forests, and croplands. Statistically significant changes in moisture and energy fluxes, and hydrometeorological variables were observed across the study period. Latent heat flux (LHF), as well as rainfall decreased, while maximum temperature, sensible heat, and potential evapotranspiration (PET) increased significantly. We found that LULCC is significantly impacting the boundary layer climate, with urban and bare land, grasslands, forests, and croplands influencing temperature positively while negatively influencing rainfall. Rainfall was most sensitive to changes in LHF, whilst the key driver of temperature variability was PET. Our results reinforce the significance of LULCC and associated feedbacks to understanding boundary layer processes, climate variability, and change.
The health impacts of air pollution in the context of changing climate in Africa : a narrative review with recommendations for action
(Ubiquity Press, 2024-12-05) Atuyambe, Lynn; Arku, Raphael E.; Naidoo, Natasha; Kapwata, Thandi; Asante, Kwaku Poku; Cissé, Guéladio; Wright, Caradee Yael; Berhane, Kiros
INTRODUCTION : Despite the broad improvement in air quality, air pollution remains a major leading global risk factor for ill health and deaths each year. Air pollution has a significant impact on both health and economic growth in Africa. This paper reviews the health impacts of air pollution and the benefits of air pollution mitigation and prevention on climate change. METHODS : We conducted a narrative review and synthesized current literature on the health impact of air pollution in the context of changing climate in Africa. RESULTS : Particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations in Africa pose significant health risks due to various sources, including household fuels and industrial emissions. Limited air quality monitoring hampers accurate assessment and public health planning. Africa’s rapid urbanization exacerbates air pollution, impacting vulnerable populations disproportionately. Renewable energy adoption and improved monitoring infrastructure are crucial for mitigating air pollution’s economic and health impacts. Recommendations include adopting air quality standards, identifying pollution sources, and prioritizing interventions for vulnerable groups. Integrating renewable energy into development plans is essential for sustainable growth. African leaders must prioritize environmental policies to safeguard public health amid ongoing industrialization. CONCLUSIONS : Air pollution prevention remains a vital concern that requires leaders to engage stakeholders, and other opinion leaders in society. African leaders should proactively explore new avenues to integrate non-polluting renewable energy sources such as solar power, wind and hydropower into their national development plans.
Assessment of the inland wetland ecosystem types in South Africa : threats and protection
(Taylor and Francis, 2025) Van Deventer, Heidi; Nel, Jeanne L.
Ecosystem threat status (ETS) and ecosystem protection levels (EPLs) are headline indicators that can assess freshwater ecosystems at a country-wide scale. A spatial layer of freshwater, inland wetland ecosystem types of South Africa was combined with a range of spatial data sets to model their ecological condition. The ETS and EPL of each ecosystem type were determined using the area of that type in good ecological condition relative to a biodiversity target, which represented 20% of the total area of that ecosystem type. Thresholds were applied to distinguish four ETS categories ranging from Least Concern to Critically Endangered, and four EPL categories ranging from Not Protected to Well Protected. A total of 79% of the 135 of South African inland wetland ecosystem types were found to be threatened, of which 83 (62% of the number of types) are Critically Endangered, 12 (9%) are Endangered, 12 (9%) are Vulnerable and 28 (21%) of Least Concern. Of the 135 inland wetland types, 61% were Not Protected, with 6% being Well Protected, 3% Moderately Protected, and 30% Poorly Protected. Protected and Ramsar sites hosted only 7% of the total area of inland wetlands, which means that the Aichi Biodiversity Target 11 for 2020 (17%) was not met.
Conserving cross-realm coastal biodiversity when real-world planning and implementation processes split the land and sea
(Elsevier, 2025-04) Harris, Linda R.; Van Niekerk, Lara; Holness, Stephen D.; Sink, Kerry J.; Skowno, Andrew L.; Dayaram, Anisha; Van Deventer, Heidi; Job, Nancy; Lamberth, Stephen J.; Adams, Janine B.; Raw, Jacqueline L.; Riddin, Tarn; Mackay, C. Fiona; Perschke, Myriam J.
Conservation planning and implementation are typically applied in land and sea areas separately, placing already impacted coastal biodiversity – which spans the divide – at risk of being inadequately managed and conserved. In South Africa, we tested how well existing land-based and marine biodiversity priority areas cover coastal priorities that we identified cross-realm using Marxan with >1000 biodiversity features. Existing priorities covered 83% of coastal priorities, indicating good but incomplete coverage. Proportionately, the seashore (foredunes, shores) and estuaries had greatest selection as coastal priorities, confirming their important biodiversity value. Finally, we developed a map of Critical Biodiversity Areas for the South African seashore and estuaries, with management recommendations. To include coastal biodiversity in real-world planning, we propose: co-developing data and targets for cross-realm features; identifying broad coastal priorities that can be used in land-based and marine plans; and developing dedicated seashore and estuary priorities to seamlessly align land-based and marine prioritisation maps.
Namib desert dust affects phytoplankton biomass in the Benguela upwelling region : insights from first mesocosm study
(Elsevier, 2025-02) Belelie, Monray D.; Burger, Roelof P.; Von Holdt, Johanna R.C.; Garland, Rebecca M.; Liswaniso, Gadaffi M.; Thomalla, Sandy J.; Piketh, Stuart J.
Please read abstract in the article.
Exploring the use of data in a digital twin for the marine and coastal environment
(MDPI, 2025-03) Haupt, Shelley; Sibolla, Bolelang H.; Molapo, Raymond; Mdakane, Lizwe; Fourie, Nicolene
The ocean plays a vital role in our society and represents a constantly changing landscape that is not well understood and therefore needs continuous monitoring and research. Sustainable monitoring is essential to assess both the current and future state of our oceans. However, conventional monitoring faces significant challenges, including issues of accessibility, and spatial and temporal constraints. The development of digital twins of the ocean (DTO) offers an emerging technology that could revolutionise our understanding of marine and coastal environments. Current DTO have shown effectiveness in monitoring marine and coastal environments in the European context. However, there is a need for a DTO for the Southern African and Western Indian Ocean regions that addresses specific concerns that are relevant to these regions. Successful development of a DTO depends on the availability of high-quality data. Therefore, various data inputs are necessary to build an accurate digital twin. This paper explores the data that can be utilised in a DTO, detailing how different ocean variables are collected and integrated into the digital twin. As a first step towards the development of a DTO in these regions, the paper proposes a data management plan and its implementation in the development of DTO. The data management plan is based on the phases of data in a geospatial data life cycle. Challenges regarding the management of data in this DTO and possible solutions are presented in the conclusion.

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