Research Articles (Construction Economics)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttp://hdl.handle.net/2263/1742

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Strategies to manage digital disruption across the hierarchy of South African shopping centres
(Adonis and Abbey, 2024-12-01) Masebe, Norman; Paradza, Partson; Zulch, Benita; u13099770@tuks.co.za
This paper investigated the challenges, impacts, and strategies to deal with digital disruption in retail and how these factors manifest across the hierarchy of South African planned shopping centres. This paper sought to answer the following question : what are the counteractive strategies that can be adopted to counteract the threats posed by digital disruption in retail across the hierarchy of South African shopping centres? The researchers applied the exploratory sequential mixed research method that consisted of an in-depth literature review substantiated by both qualitative and quantitative research. It was concluded that data-driven decisions can manage digital disruption. Therefore, it wasrecommended that shopping centres invest in data analytics.
Some implications of the condition of South Africa’s public sector fixed infrastructure
(University of Free State, 2024-12-10) Wall, Kevin
This third article in a planned series on the state of South Africa’s public sector fixed infrastructure examines the implications of its deteriorating condition. The first two articles focused on efforts to monitor infrastructure conditions and on studies of its state and findings. This review outlines the extent to which the poor condition of infrastructure negatively impacts on the economy and quality of life, providing specific examples from sectors such as land transport, electricity, water, and waste water, with agribusiness as a case study. The article discusses how the failures of institutions such as Eskom (including its neglect of capacity expansion), PRASA, Transnet, and municipal authorities have hindered economic growth and stifled improvements in citizens’ quality of life. Central to this analysis is the argument that the root cause is institutional breakdown: the failure of these institutions preceded the deterioration of infrastructure, and only through fundamental institutional reform can these challenges be addressed. The article concludes that institutional reform should be a primary focus in addressing South Africa’s infrastructure crisis
Report cards, and other tracking of South Africa's public sector fixed infrastructure condition
(University of the Free State, 2024) Wall, Kevin
This article is the second of a planned series being published in this Journal describing investigations of the condition of South Africa’s infrastructure, reasons for/contributory factors to this condition, and the consequences of this condition for service delivery and quality of life. The purpose of the article is not to critique any of the infrastructure condition measurements, but to convey to the reader a general impression of the direction in which the condition of public sector infrastructure in South Africa is heading, and to make inferences from that. The article introduces surveys which have been undertaken by credible institutions, including a number of national, provincial, and local government departments, state-owned companies, as well as the Auditor General to track South Africa’s public sector fixed infrastructure condition. Over the years, a number of these surveys, some of them tracking the condition of this infrastructure and others tracking various performance criteria which allow inferences of the infrastructure condition to be made, have shown that the infrastructure is, on average, not in a good state – thus hampering service delivery and, as a consequence, harming the economy and the quality of life of the population. However, the South African Institution of Civil Engineering, with its four “infrastructure report cards”, approximately five years apart, has provided the clearest picture of trends in infrastructure condition nationwide.
Mining activities and housing price nexus : evidence from South Africa
(Emerald, 2024-12) Akinsomi, Omokolade; Bangura, Mustapha; Yacim, Joseph Awoamim
PURPOSE : Several studies have examined the impact of market fundamentals on house prices. However, the effect of economic sectors on housing prices is limited despite the existence of two-speed economies in some countries, such as South Africa. Therefore, this study aims to examine the impact of mining activities on house prices. This intends to understand the direction of house price spreads and their duration so policymakers can provide remediation to the housing market disturbance swiftly. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH : This study investigated the effect of mining activities on house prices in South Africa, using quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2019Q1 and deploying an auto-regressive distributed lag model. FINDINGS : In the short run, we found that changes in mining activities, as measured by the contribution of this sector to gross domestic product, impact the housing price of mining towns directly after the first quarter and after the second quarter in the non-mining cities. Second, we found that inflationary pressure is instantaneous and impacts house prices in mining towns only in the short run but not in the long run, while increasing housing supply will help cushion house prices in both submarkets. This study extended the analysis by examining a possible spillover in house prices between mining and non-mining towns. This study found evidence of spillover in housing prices from mining towns to non-mining towns without any reciprocity. In the long run, a mortgage lending rate and housing supply are significant, while all the explanatory variables in the non-mining towns are insignificant. ORIGINALITY/VALUE : These results reveal that enhanced mining activities will increase housing prices in mining towns after the first quarter, which is expected to spill over to non-mining towns in the next quarter. These findings will inform housing policymakers about stabilising the housing market in mining and non-mining towns. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to measure the contribution of mining to house price spillover.
Predictive accuracy of logit regression for data-scarce developing markets : a Nigeria and South Africa study
(MDPI, 2023-09) Oladeji, Jonathan Damilola; Zulch, Benita; Yacim, Joseph Awoamim; jonathan.oladeji@tuks.co.za
This research examines how much forecasting accuracy can be achieved by modelling the relationships between listed real estate and macroeconomic time series variables using the logit regression model. The example data for this analysis included 10-year (2008–2018) transactions. The Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS, version 25) and Microsoft Excel 2016 were used for descriptive and inferential analysis. The data collected on the listed real estate transactions for South Africa and Nigeria represent the largest listed real estate markets in the continent. The study found that 22.2% variance in the Nigerian real estate market was explained by the lending rate, treasure bill rate, and Consumer Price Index, while 9.4% variance in the South African real estate market was explained by changes in the exchange rate and coincident indicators. The strength and similarity of the model capacity in both countries showed that each market signal has a predictive accuracy of 75% (Nigeria) and 80% (South Africa).
Implications of macroeconomic risks on NHFC'S incremental housing finance in South Africa
(Emerald, 2023-06) Oladeji, Jonathan Damilola; Zulch, Benita; Yacim, Joseph Awoamim; jonathan.oladeji@tuks.co.za
PURPOSE – The challenge of accessibility to adequate housing in several countries by a large percentage of citizens has given rise to different housing programs designed to facilitate access to affordable housing. In South Africa, the National Housing Finance Corporation (NHFC) was created to provides housing loans to low- and middle-income earners. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the implication of the macroeconomic risk elements on the performance of the NHFC incremental housing finance. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH – This study used a mixed-method approach to examine the time series data of the NHFC over 17 years (2003–2020), relative to selected macroeconomic indicators. Additionally, this study analysed primary data from a 2022 survey of NHFC Executives. FINDINGS – This study found that incremental housing finance addresses a housing affordability gap, caters to disadvantaged groups, adapts to changing macroeconomic conditions and can mitigate default risk. It also finds that the performance of the NHFC’s incremental housing finance is premised on the behaviour of the macroeconomic elements that drive its strategy in South Africa. ORIGINALITY/VALUE – Unlike previous works on housing finance, this case study of the NHFC considers the implication of macroeconomic trends when disbursing incremental housing finance to low- and middle-level income earners as a risk mitigation measure for the South African market. Its mixed method use of quantitative and qualitative data also allows a robust insight into trends that drive investment in incremental housing finance in South Africa.
Monitoring the condition of public sector fixed infrastructure in South Africa
(University of Free State, 2023-12) Wall, K.
Infrastructure is designed and built to deliver a service, but how well the infrastructure is operated and maintained is a major determinant of how effectively it is able to deliver that service. Despite this, much of the South African infrastructure owned by the public sector is not kept in a good condition. The article describes 25 years of highlevel effort – including the conducting of research, the compilation of guidelines, and the passing of legislation – to improve the condition of public sector infrastructure. Inter alia, it introduces and describes the ‘infrastructure report card’ concept and how that has been applied in South Africa. It also highlights current texts on infrastructure asset management and suggests some examples of infrastructure asset management planning.
A comparison of low-cost housing units for varying climatic regions in South Africa : a knowledge management approach
(Emerald, 2024-09) Van Tonder, Francine; Rwelamila, P.D.
PURPOSE – One of the greatest challenges faced by the 1994 post-apartheid government in South Africa is the housing problem that has persisted for almost 30 years into democracy. Innovation in research and practice is required to address this problem. This paper aims to discuss the aforementioned objective. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH – This paper presents an argument for housing knowledge management as one part of a much larger system of housing provision and critically compares information variations on one hypothetical, low-cost housing unit adapted for varying climatic regions. It aims to enquire if there is an overlap in information. FINDINGS – The findings do confirm a noteworthy overlap in the information of the varying units. Therefore, knowledge management of the information would prove effective and may contribute in part to housing provision. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS – The study is limited to assessing the information changes made to the contract documentation of the housing unit. SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS – The paper argues that knowledge management of this overlapping information could impact housing provision by providing knowledge power to those affected by the housing problem. ORIGINALITY/VALUE – The findings are a unique perspective presented through a knowledge management lens. In addition, the said knowledge management lens provides a platform to raise additional questions. When seeking answers to these questions, it is expected that research sub-themes would be identified focussing further research studies towards finding answers.
Modelling and experimental investigation of a vapor compression system under steady state regime
(International Journal of Mechanical Engineering and Robotics Research, 2022-02) Sanama, Conrad; Xia, Xiaohua; xiaohua.xia@up.ac.za
The main objective of this work is to establish a detailed modelling technique to predict the refrigerant conditions such as pressure and enthalpy of a Vapor Compression (VC) system. The steady state modelling techniques of VC systems suggested in many research works are usually not easy to reproduce due to lack of detailed methodology and to the multitude of analytical or computational schemes that could not be assessed objectively. This work has addressed this issue by introducing a modelling method developed from first principles and adaptable to different type of prediction problems. The validation of the model results with experiments was satisfactory. The model outputs such as the refrigerant evaporating pressure as well as the enthalpy at each junction are in agreement with experimental data. The proposed modelling technique could be adopted with other existing mathematical models of the components of a VC system. The modelling method could help to determine the optimal parameters of a VC system used to design and test optimal control strategies at low cost to improve the system’s efficiency. This work could also be used for modelling of VC systems with complex configuration such as systems with single condenser and multiple evaporators.
A model for integrated tourism infrastructure planning in the South African public sector
(Africa Journals, 2022-10) Wall, K.; Chettiar, Shamilla; Laryea, Samuel
Tourism infrastructure is considered critical for tourism growth and destination competitiveness. Within the complex South African public sector planning system, the responsibility for infrastructure and tourism planning lies with multiple departments at national, provincial and local government spheres. Tourism infrastructure needs can therefore best be addressed through integrated planning. Private sector investment in tourism infrastructure usually follows public sector investment. This paper presents the results of a qualitative, multimethod study. The research question was: “What are the key elements of a model for integrated tourism infrastructure planning undertaken by the South African public sector?” The study proposes three key elements of the model - a National Tourism Spatial Development Framework: Regional Tourism Masterplans and a Tourism Infrastructure Strategy and Plan. A People component has also emerged as being significant for effectiveness of the model. The study further confirmed that the model will support the integration of tourism, economic, spatial and infrastructure planning and development. Application of this research is intended to integrate public sector tourism infrastructure planning in South Africa which in the long term should yield greater public sector investment, stimulate greater private sector investment, and ultimately support the growth and competitiveness of the tourism sector.
The 1998 "'mini-constitution' for local government" : a review of the assumptions of the white paper on local government
(University of the Free State, 2022-12) Wall, Kevin; kevin.wall@up.ac.za
Many South African municipalities suffer service-delivery problems that can usually be ascribed to inadequate management, skills, and budgets. The reasons for these, in turn, invariably include weak economic base, unwise spending of available funds, and difficulty in recruiting and retaining skilled staff. The White Paper on Local Government of 1998, to which Valli Moosa, the then Minister for Provincial Affairs and Constitutional Development, referred as “almost [being] regarded as a ‘mini-Constitution’ for local government”, together with the Municipal Demarcation Act of the same year, spelled out the framework in terms of which the local government system would be transformed. Municipalities, covering the entire country “wall-to-wall”, were thereafter established and powers and functions were assigned to them. After more than two decades, there can no longer be any doubt that many municipalities are, to a significant extent, failing in their primary duty of delivering services. The author sought to investigate to what extent this failing is due to flaws in the ‘mini-Constitution’. By examining aspects of the performance of municipalities, the article assesses key assumptions made by the drafters of the White Paper in respect of a number of key attributes for service delivery. These attributes include sufficient skills and funding, prudent budgeting and effective spending, good leadership, adequate systems and data, stability of the senior leadership, and the presence of trust and credibility. The article finds that many of the assumptions were flawed, with severe consequences for service delivery.
Addressing the infrastructure maintenance gap while creating employment and transferring skills : an innovative institutional model
(Routledge, 2023) Wall, Kevin; kevin.wall@up.ac.za
The ‘social franchising’ model for the operation and maintenance of selected water and sanitation infrastructure, the conceptual origins of the model, its subsequent development by desktop research methods, and its piloting in the field, are described. Piloted in South Africa by a team with extensive experience of water and sanitation infrastructure and business development, the model has since been rolled out to scale, simultaneously bringing about (i) the servicing of selected infrastructure, returning it to full use, and (ii) micro-business development and nurturing, job creation, and skills development. Development and implementation of the model over two decades have demonstrated its robust nature compared to equivalent stand-alone micro-businesses, how it can partner in schools to improve health and hygiene education, and the effectiveness of the work it has done on infrastructure servicing and to accomplish tasks other than basic maintenance.
A pragmatic derivative method to assess the condition of a public health built infrastructure portfolio
(South African Institute of Civil Engineers, 2022-09) De Jager, Peta; Wall, Kevin; kevin.wall@up.ac.za
The 2006, 2011 and 2017 Report Cards on the condition of built environment fixed infrastructure in South Africa were the product of cooperation between the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the South African Institution of Civil Engineering (SAICE). Their purpose has been to draw the attention of government, and of the public at large, to the importance of maintenance, and to factors underlying the condition of public sector infrastructure. One of the ten public infrastructure sectors assessed in all three report cards was the health sector, comprising hospitals and clinics. This paper describes how the collection and analysis for the 2017 infrastructure report card of health sector condition data was conducted. In particular, it describes how, in the absence of a comprehensive reasonably up-to-date database, and the way, without their interrogation and integration in mind, in which available datasets had been compiled, the CSIR formulated a pragmatic derivative method to assess the condition of the public health built infrastructure portfolio.
The right to functioning urban infrastructure – a review
(University of the Free State, 2021-12) Wall, Kevin; kevin.wall@up.ac.za
A major objective of local government in South Africa, as defined in the Constitution, is to ensure the provision of services to communities in a sustainable manner. However, neglect of infrastructure continues to hamper access to service delivery, affecting all citizens and the economy. Informed by the author’s own long career involvement and current research programme in infrastructure operation and maintenance, together with current extensive secondary research, he identified that lack of care for infrastructure leads directly to infrastructure failure. This, in turn, harms the economy and inconveniences citizens, and, in some instances, even deprives them of their rights. This article draws attention to some generic reasons for the failure of infrastructure and service delivery and explores ways for measuring infrastructure and service delivery deficits. It emphasises the consequences of service delivery failure and notes the experiences of four towns, all of which have service delivery deficits. The article then contrasts the public statements of authorities such as Ministers and the Auditor General with the dearth of effective action on the part of many municipalities, and asks why this should be.
Are former commercial farmers in Zimbabwe satisfied with the global compensation agreement?
(Routledge, 2022) Zulch, Benita; Yacim, Joseph Awoamim; Paradza, Partson; u14052190@tuks.co.za
Zimbabwe’s new administration indicated its willingness to end the compensation dispute, which lasted for two decades with former commercial farmers (FCFs), by signing the global compensation agreement (GCA). In the agreement, the Government of Zimbabwe (GoZ) offered to pay the sum of 3.5 billion, United States Dollars (USD) to the FCFs for their expropriated farmlands. A study carried out by the Valuation Consortium (Valcon) before the GCA signing revealed that most of the FCFs accepted the compensation offered by the expropriating authority. Thus far, no study has been done to assess the level of satisfaction of the affected FCFs, with the GCA provisions. Therefore, this study evaluated the views of FCFs and members of the Compensation Committee (MsCC) on this subject. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey which was mailed directly to the Chairperson of the FCFs, who sent it to other members to respond to issues raised. The study found mixed views by the FCFs on their levels of satisfaction with the GCA. Thus, the study concluded that compensation offered was not entirely satisfactory because it did not include accruals for delayed payment, professional fees, and a detailed breakdown of the compensable heads of claim.
Consistency and fairness of property valuation for compensation for land and improvements in Zimbabwe
(Sciendo, 2021-12) Paradza, Partson; Yacim, Joseph Awoamim; Zulch, Benita; benita.zulch@up.ac.za
Property valuation for compensation of expropriated properties in Zimbabwe has been characterised by inconsistencies for decades. Previous studies have noted that displaced people are dissatisfied with the compensation paid by the expropriating authority. Even though many academic works were done on expropriation and compensation in Zimbabwe, issues surrounding consistency in property valuation practices and fairness of compensation paid remain unresearched. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to close this gap. Data for this study were collected through primary sources (questionnaire surveys to members of the compensation committee, private property valuers, designated property valuers and former commercial farmers) and secondary sources (literature surveys including a review of statutes, official reports, books, journals, and newsletters). Findings reveal that there is inconsistency in property valuation for expropriation, no clear legal definition of what constitutes fair compensation, and that views on the fairness of the compensation paid for expropriated properties in Zimbabwe are divergent. The study suggests that there is a need to review existing expropriation and compensation laws in Zimbabwe to create consistency in practice, thereby improving the fairness in the amount of compensation paid to the displaced person(s).
The role of the project manager in delivering design-build projects
(Springer, 2021-07) Zulch, Benita; Kitshoff, Jean-Pierre; benita.zulch@up.ac.za
The purpose of this study is to determine the roles and responsibilities of the project manager on Design-Build projects, in the context of projects completed in the Built Environment in the large metropoles of South Africa, as well as to study the factors that influences success on these projects. Utilising data obtained from interviews with relevant project managers, the components of success in projects and the success factors ensuring project success is compared with those components and factors found in the literature. The outcome of this comparison provides a summary of the differences in the roles and responsibilities of project managers appointed by clients and contractors respectively, as well as the links between project success components and factors. The application of these results guides the project manager to successfully deliver Design-Build projects.
Valuation for compensation of communal properties in Zimbabwe : the case of Chiyadzwa and Tokwe-Mukosi projects
(Emerald, 2022-04) Yacim, Joseph Awoamim; Paradza, Partson; Zulch, Benita; u14052190@tuks.co.za
PURPOSE : This study aims to examine the statutory provisions as it concerns the practice of valuation for compensation of expropriated communal properties in Zimbabwe. The primary motivation was to have informed policies that would regulate the practice of landed property assessments for compensation purposes and further contributes to existing compensation debates. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH : A multiple case study approach was adopted, in which property valuation projects for Chiyadzwa and Tokwe-Mukosi, provinces were selected. These two projects were chosen because they are the most recent property valuation for compensation on expropriated communal properties. Content analysis was used to analyse the statutory provisions guiding property valuation and compensation rates adopted and used during the Chiyadzwa and Tokwe Mukosi valuation projects. FINDINGS : The study found an absence of statutory guidelines on the choice of valuation methodologies, leading to inconsistencies in compensation estimates for the communal properties. RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/IMPLICATIONS : The study dwells on data from the previous assessment of communal properties that triggered discontentment amongst the people to build a framework for future valuations of communal properties. PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS : This study reviewed the existing expropriation and compensation laws and built a comprehensive guiding framework for property valuers to choose appropriate valuation methodologies and procedures for the assessment of expropriated communal properties in Zimbabwe. SOCIAL IMPLICATIONS : The main motivation for this study is to find a lasting solution to frequent court cases and clashes between the government of Zimbabwe and the displaced people. ORIGINALITY/VALUE : No study unravels the detailed property valuation processes used in determining the amount of payment for the expropriated communal properties in Zimbabwe. This study built a framework that will serve as a guide to the property valuers in the assessment of compensation for communal properties.
South African infrastructure condition – an opinion survey for the SAICE infrastructure report card
(South African Institution of Civil Engineering, 2021-03) Rust, F.C.; Wall, Kevin; Smit, M.A.; Arnod, Salim
The South African Institution of Civil Engineering (SAICE) Infrastructure Report Cards of 2006, 2011 and 2017 reported that much of the South African infrastructure is in a poor condition. To augment the recent 2017 Report Card, a survey was, for the first time, conducted amongst SAICE members to obtain their opinion on the condition of infrastructure (in terms of a grading), the trend of the condition over time, as well as the reasons for the individual’s grading. The 669 respondents indicated that, apart from a few exceptions such as national airports and the Gautrain, much of the infrastructure is in a poor state, which is very similar to the results obtained from the SAICE Report Card process. The results were also analysed per province and indicated that, in the opinion of respondents, specific provinces in particular are struggling with poor infrastructure. The main reasons given for the poor infrastructure were a lack of maintenance, lack of institutional capability, lack of sufficient funding and over-loading of infrastructure.
The influence of tenant diversity on the performance of shopping centres
(Adonis & Abbey Publishers, 2021-06) Dlamini, Sizwile Nelisiwe; Cloete, C.E. (Christiaan Ernst)
This study investigated whether a relationship exists between tenant diversity and the return on investment in South African regional and super-regional shopping centres. The Simpson diversity index was used to calculate the tenant diversity in 10 super-regional shopping centres and 50 regional centres in South Africa. The analysis was performed over one-year, three-year and five-year periods. The regression analysis showed that a positive linear relationship exists between retail categories diversity and the return on investment over a three- and five-year period in the case of regional shopping centres that are located in the Western Cape province. A weak linear relationship exists between return on investment and retail categories diversity for all super-regional shopping centres and regional shopping centres that are located in the Gauteng province.

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